Diplomatic Mediation [Franneri-Gaelian-Lusatian Diplo]

[alxeu]

Having spoken to both the Franerri Ambassador Mattieu Janos and the Gaelian Ambassador Anton McCaig, Foreign Minister Stefan Kaminski sent messages to both of the men and requested they meet again with him, together, so that the two could reach a mutually beneficial agreement between their nations that adequately addressed each side's concerns.

From what he had learned, he went into the meeting with a very basic plan and understanding that he intended to start from once both sides arrived:

-Both sides apologize in some way to one another, probably just foreign ministry to foreign ministry in a way that is acceptable to the other side while also avoiding offense at the need to apologize. 
-Ulster-Gaelia continues trade agreements with Franerre, with conditions built in to guarantee Ulster-Gaelia isn't transporting goods across the ocean for no profit, and some immediate concession that balanced the books. Tariffs seemed to be what they wanted, but Franerre would chafe at significant beatings with a stick if there was no carrot on offer, either.
-Fortunately, Franerre wanted more domestic investments, civilian or military, that represented actual Gaelian assets that weren't Gaelian soldiers or military bases - they wanted real benefits if they're going to be another front in a future war. Kaminski had scribbled a note about potential Gaelian corporate investment into Franerre, which would create jobs and domestic production that still also turns Ulster-Gaelia a profit at the end of the day. The Gaelians didn't want to do this for free, after all.
-Closer diplomatic and military cooperation was off the table for now, but Ulster-Gaelia also wanted some means of being able to guarantee anything permanent they commit to Franerre, so something in that regard needed working out. This last point depended on how the rest of the meeting went. If things went smoothly enough, there might be a good way to segue into discussing this point.

It would require an actual sit down with both nations' representatives to actually turn these brief notes into a real agreement, so Kaminski only hoped both men would put aside their own governments' feuds to try and hammer something out.

[callmedelta]

Janos arrived at the meeting with a cautious optimism. Kaminski wouldn't have called this meeting if he didn't think Franerre and Gaelia could come to a compromise that satisfied both parties, hell, the man probably already had a proposal written out ready for the two to sign. Mattieu himself was skeptical of a Gaelian willingness to compromise, but if anyone could it was Kaminksi. The harder part would probably be selling it back in Pareau, but that bridge would be crossed by Director Mesny. Ambassador Janos arrived at the meeting, allowing Kaminski to speak first.

[Greywall]

Anton McCaig would head the meeting with some junior staff members, he was rather realistic of the outcome of the meeting. Frannerre had over reached and insulted the UKUG during a meeting to assemble a bloc that would have ultimately protected the Kingdom. But any concessions from Frannerre would be held until the trade agreement could be protected, Parliament was absolutely prepared to cut the treaty following the meeting as many members of the elect had verbally stated intent to vote yes on cancelling.

Anton and his delegation would take their seat and let the Lusatian delegation begin.

[alxeu]

Kaminski smiled briefly at both ambassadors before digging into business, "Thank you both for answering my summons, I aware my office has been requesting your time frequently as of late, so I'm sure neither of you would object to getting right down to business."

He looked at both men in turn, then continued, "The recent diplomatic woes between Franerre and Ulster-Gaelia are not problems that can be paved over in a fortnight, or over a few meetings in my office. It would be best, therefore, for any agreement we reach today to include recurring effects, that the credit of trust be rebuilt between our two allies."

"On that note, let's start with trade. It's my understanding that no corporation or government likes transporting goods across the ocean only to find their buyers no longer buying. It's a waste of money, and simply encourages them to remove the destination from their list. Furthermore, if they can't sell there, they aren't likely to buy there, either, so reciprocal trade falls apart, too. Though I'm sure the boycott in Franerre is a spontaneous event, it nevertheless severely strains trade relations between Franerre and Ulster-Gaelia. Even if it were to end today, there's still damage that needs to be healed, and time needed to fully restore the full value and volume of the trade as previous. It's my understanding that, regardless of other agreements reached today, Ulster-Gaelia intends to levy a tariff on exports to Franerre, ensuring that the government, at least, does not lose profits from the boycott."

"Of course, just rolling over and accepting tariffs would be another misery forced upon the Franerri government which will only further dampen public enthusiasm for trade for Ulster-Gaelia. While the lost revenue needs to be repaid, we can set up a meeting in a year's time to readjust tariffs back to less painful levels. Ulster-Gaelia can reciprocate by encouraging particular industries to set up civilian industries in Franerre so that not all goods are subject to these tariffs. More essential goods, or perhaps those that are purchased in the highest volume, besides. These factories would bring wealth to Franerri workers and profits to Gaelian industrialists, both of whom would pay taxes back to their respective governments."

"In respect to strictly economic matters, would this idea be acceptable? I'm aware their are further topics to discuss, but in the interest of keeping discussions digestible, we're going to tackle them all separately."

[Greywall]

Anton would respond with, "In terms of those economic terms the UKUG would find them acceptable."

[callmedelta]

Janos scrawled a few things on a notepad. "We can delve further into specific numbers at a later time, but I think the idea is ultimately a sound one."

[alxeu]

"Right. I'm sure further details can be arranged after I bring up the next few points, anyway."

"Moving on towards the events at the Shawbalt Conference, though I believe both the Franerri delegation and Prime Minister O'Donnell spoke honestly, sometimes frank opinions can be damaging to the diplomatic process. Lusatia did not have delegates at this conference, so who was responsible for the argument is unclear to us, and, indeed, barring an entire transcript being released to the world at large, no one truly knows for certain. To that end, I would like to suggest that both the Franerr and Ulster-Gaelian Foreign Ministries distribute apologies for, say, 'undiplomatic language,' for their embassies in each others' nations to publish or submit to the host governments for perusal. No need to be too loud about it, and no need for anyone to dig in their heels and insist on no wrong-doing. If both nations do their part to keep the news contained to the circles that would appreciate the apologies, Franerri citizens wouldn't need to know their government apologized, and vice-versa, in Ulster-Gaelia."

"As for military and diplomatic cooperation akin to that proposed at Shawbalt, it is my understanding that anything Franerre wants from Ulster-Gaelia, Ulster-Gaelia is unwilling to provide at this time, and vice-versa regarding Ulster-Gaelia's diplomatic goals in Franerre. If I'm not mistaken, what Franerre desires from Ulster-Gaelia is much of what Lusatia is already providing: equipment, advisors, and a diplomatic guarantee of protection. Ulster-Gaelia offered adjacent incentives, not quite exactly what Franerre wanted, but also added conditions for military bases on Franerri soil, which is currently a red line issue for Franerre's government."

"Given recent events, I'm sure all of these ideas are currently unfeasible and represent a bridge too far in trust for both nations. I'd like to suggest, therefore, that while both sides should eventually find an agreeable middle-ground in these discussions, it might be best to put a pin in such discussions for a year, at minimum, to allow passions to cool and for economic deals between the nations to restabilize and begin regenerating trust."

Kaminski looked over to McCaig, "It might also be reassuring to Franerre that Ulster-Gaelia is committed to its alliance with Lusatia - just as Lusatia is commited to Ulster-Gaelia - and that both nations would naturally aid each other if either entered a conflict with another nation, particularly regarding those which happen to mutually endanger Lusatia, Ulster-Gaelia, and Franerre."

[callmedelta]

'Undiplomatic language is certainly one way to phrase it,' Mattieu thought. 'And Kaminski's proposal is awfully optimistic. There would certainly be parties in Franerre who'd dig in their heels and insist we did nothing wrong. I'd be surprised if there weren't any in Gaelia as well. That does bring up the question of why Lusatia wasn't invited to the conference, though. This whole incident may have never happened. Thoughts for another time, though.'

"I believe most of what you have said can be done, Minister," Mattieu said, "But Franerre has a free press, and I believe Gaelia does as well. 'Keeping the news contained,' as you put it, may be easier said than done. It is journalists' job to look for things, after all, and I would imagine many papers could get quite the boost in sales if they were the first to publish a story to feed into the ongoing outrage. What's more, I believe it would be much easier for the boycott in Franerre to dissipate on its own if a public apology was made, especially if it were by the Taoiseach himself rather than the foreign ministry, but when news of an apology gets back to Gaelia I'd imagine it would only make the situation on your end of things worse, Ambassador McCaig. Your idea has merit, but these are issues that may need to be smoothed over before we proceed."

[Greywall]

Anton shook his head, "You've never met Richard O'Donnell, that man won't apologize. If Frannerre can't agree to these terms brought forth we can't either. The United Kingdom won't consent to a public apology."

[alxeu]

"There's a reason I offer the phrasing 'undiplomatic language' as the focus of the apology. My limited understanding of the Shawbalt Conference is that more was said and argued over than just poor choices of words and phrasing. Domestically, Franerre can play up Ulster-Gaelia's apology as a concession from an otherwise unyielding nation, while claiming your own apology is a non-apology. You aren't apologizing for representing your nation and trying to do what's best for it, you're just saying what needs to be said for diplomacy's sake. If its issued specifically from embassy staff, it's further divorceable from official government activity. If you want to find a scapegoat in the foreign ministry to fire after the apology is sent, that's another avenue you can take to quell public discontent."

"Similarly, Ulster-Gaelia can offer similar explanations, though their foreign ministry offering a quiet non-apology is going to raise less eyebrows, anyway, when adjacent to tariffs being implemented. If Franerre needs help with the bad press, Lusatia can help by gifting a dozen of our old fighters, dispatching additional advisors, or some other free show of goodwill around the same time to try and flood the news cycle."

"I recognize that these apologies from both sides are far insufficient to what both sides might expect, but I also believe that neither of your nations have any will to offer a real apology anyway. Ambassador McCaig speaks true when he says O'Donnell would never apologize."

[callmedelta]

“I like your thinking, Kaminski,” Matthieu said, smiling, “If there are more important things to write about, and with maybe a little prodding, I’m sure any fusses people do make over an apology would be greatly lessened, if it even happened at all.” Of course, doubling Franerre’s current stock of aircraft would be a nice benefit as well.

[Greywall]

'I don't know why the Lusatians baby the Frannerri like this, perhaps Colonial guilt?' thought McCaig, "I guess that's the best option we have."

[alxeu]

"Then it sounds like we have a baseline for future diplomatic agreements and treaties going forward," Kaminski declared.

"I'll have my notes be the closest to putting down today's discussions in writing. I doubt it'll do much good if the full agreement reached today was leaked."

"Immediate action is to prepare diplomatic apologies that ought to be submitted during the last week of this month. Neither should be submitted earlier or later than that period so neither side is left hanging. Ambassador Janos should alert my office to the date Franerre intends to publish its apology, and Lusatia will see fit to release the promised aid the same day, so that Franerre papers can publish the headlines shortly thereafter."

"Ulster-Gaelia will also pass its new tariffs post-haste to really flood the news and minimize the amount of time any individual story gets. Around this time next year, Franerre and Ulster-Gaelia ought to renegotiate economic agreements and see if there is any new understanding regarding diplomatic and military cooperation. Is there anything I'm missing?"

[Greywall]

McCaig shook his head, "Not on my end, i'll relay this to Parliament."

[callmedelta]

“I don’t believe there’s anything else on Franerre’s end either,” Matthieu said, looking at McCraig, “Though I do believe we should both get this back to our respective governments posthaste. The sooner this all ends, the better for everyone involved.”