Off to the Races - The Lusatian Snap Elections

[alxeu]

"This isn't working," huffed Mikołaj, storming into the Prime Minister's office. "Stefan may be fine languishing until the next election, but the Sejm is on the brink of mutiny, Komorowski. We need to hold elections now, before they hold a no-confidence motion and take the choice away from us. At least announcing them ourselves will give us control over the narrative."

Komorowski was caught off-guard by the sudden entry of the Economic Minister, but soon rebalanced himself and challenged Mikołaj, "What in the world are you talking about? The Sejm is only calling for elections because the government is unpopular. It'll be the end of all of us here, and in the best case scenario, it results in us winding up back here anyway. Meanwhile, the worst case scenario is a Socialist or Hardliner victory, with all the problems for the center that that'd entail."

"I get it, the pressure is high, but we need to remain firm. The center must hold."

"Mr. Prime Minister, it cannot hold. I have, here," Mikołaj said, passing the Prime Minister a list of names, "enough people within the Pragmatists to call for no confidence. I've barely enough control of them to get them to agree to give you a chance to call elections, so please, do what's right for your supporters and for the nation. Call the election before you are forced to."

"Fine! Fine. Your damnable lot will get what you want, but-," the Prime Minister said, stopping briefly upon being interrupted but then continuing, "But! I want one last piece of legislation. We're reforming the electoral system. These first-past-the-post elections need to go, we have no control over the candidate rolls. I don't want your party to defect to the Hardliners halfway through the next term because it's politically advantageous. I want to be able to trust the men who represent your party, and that's best situated by having you and Kaminski pick who gets to take the seats your party wins."

"Mr. Zachariasiewicz, I'm proposing a proportional electoral system by voivodeship, with both Miklasgrad and Kazimierzgrad being separated out from their local administrative districts, as well. Each region is assigned representatives proportional to population, and we run with a highest averages method. Should still lock most smaller parties out, while making sure our parties and the major opposition parties stay around. I mean, who'll miss the Agrarians, anyway?"

Mikołaj stood for a moment, partially shaken by the Prime Minister's audacity, partially considering his offer. Finally he shook his head and sighed, "If you wish. Better this than getting wiped by narrowly losing a bunch of elections to general unpopularity. Our opponents to the left can't even oppose it without seeming hypocritical. Let's do this and get an election underway."

---

Two weeks later, an electoral district map and new electoral system were charted and elections were announced. The new electoral system had passed, over the objection of the Agrarians, Hardliners, and a concentrated effort by many of the more unorthodox politicians of each party, fearing they'd not be invited to return to the Sejm even if their "seat" was still won again. The Cabinet would stay on for the six month period while the campaigning continued, but, as tradition, the leader of the King's Privy Council, the Count of Czarnelasy, would lead as interim caretaker of the Sejm.

The future of the nation was now in play.


New Electoral Districts created by the Electoral Reform Act

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Polls, Stay 27th, six months until Election Day:

Liberal Party: 23%
Socialist Labor Party: 22%
Hardline Conservatives: 18%
Pragmatic Conservatives: 14%
Agrarian Party: 9%
Undecided/Others: 14%

[alxeu]

By the fall, the election was well underway. Representatives of all parties campaigned hard on the issues of the day, each arguing their positions and each trying to get a leg up among the public. The undecided population was constantly sought after by both the Liberals and SLP, while the Conservative factions resorted to infighting.

After some time, the Conservative factions decided to increase their competitiveness by rebranding into two new parties officially, finally completing the divide of the two groups. Those who were known as Pragmatists rebranded themselves as the National Conservative Party, putting the good of the nation and its people over ideological commitments, and ultimately being a center-right party. The Hardliners became the Kingdom Party, campaigning on traditional values and opposition to socialism.

Meanwhile, the general population found itself immersed in the politics of the day. Many issues behind the General Strike of 1931, though somewhat addressed, continued to be unresolved and additional issues came to the forefront. Additional safety issues, problems with industrial compliance, long workweeks, low pay, maternity leave, and other such issues were raised. So too were discussions of women's rights and of property and land reform raised. Indications of unequal wages and treatment despite legal protections were major complaints. On all of these issues, support for the SLP thrived.

Those more economically minded saw the deficit and the spending of the government as problematic. Though many did question the military expenditure of the nation, it was always from a concern as to whether military expenditure was being used correctly. Always it was asked if the border defenses were sufficient, if the navy was sufficient, if it was really necessary for aerial investments when the defense of the nation needed every Zloty they could get. Meanwhile, the large amounts of foreign aid to Franerre were criticized in many financial circles, seeing it as a large waste of money when the nation did not even bear a financial surplus. The National Conservatives saw some headway among this group.

The last issue was of foreign policy, including the Elenerre War, where Lusatia had sat by and let Franerre be overrun. These people saw foreign aid as a minimum step, and continuously pushed for more cooperation with Franerre and attempted to equate Kumosenkan with the Sovereign Union, deeming both existential threats to peace. Despite their concerns, however, they tended to side with the Liberals and the center, fearing radical departures from current foreign policy direction and generally being, if not happy, then at least satisfied with Lusatia's current direction.

The result of all these concerns was a generalized dead-heat, but the social issues and concerns bore more weight among the populace as a whole, memories of Elenerre becoming less relevant by the day, and the deficit not seen as too concerning, especially with political discussions regarding the raising of corporate taxes after the election.



Polling by electoral divisions. Red = SLP, Yellow = LP, Dark Yellow = AP, Blue = NCP, Dark Blue = KP

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Polls, Decallien 27th, three months until Election Day:



Socialist Labor Party: 27%
Liberal Party: 26%
National Conservative Party: 21%

Kingdom Party: 13%

Agrarian Party: 7%

Undecided/Others: 6%

[alxeu]

As the elections entered their final weeks, rhetoric and debate around the growing popularity of the SLP began to dominate the campaign trail. A month before the election, polling from major newspapers consistently put the SLP at about 37%, with the Liberals at 34%, and the National Conservatives at 19%. The Kingdom Party and Agrarians both faced increasing pressure from the larger parties who tried to convince them that this election was too close to vote for their fringe electoral blocs (even if the proportional nature of seat allocation would now mean that their parties would still yield some seats on election day). This increasing lead for the SLP, though not enough to block a Liberal-Conservative governing coalition, would be too large a group in the Sejm to ignore, especially as concern grew that the remaining Agrarian vote was sympathetic to the SLP agenda and would likely pressure their leadership to form their own coalition with them. Conservative voices would flood the airwaves, decrying socialism and its perversion and destruction of traditional Lusatian institutions and ways of life. Arguing that an SLP victory would fatally divide Lusatia and weaken it to external threats, some Conservatives even went as far as hinting that the military might have need to step in if the Socialist Labor Party won it all.

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It was not meant to be.

On Obsillia 2nd, 1934, the people of Kazimierzgrad awoke to explosions rocking the city hall and the offices of several members of the Sejm. Though the fires caused by these explosions caused significant damage to the buildings in question, due to the time at which the bombs were detonated, the only casualties were staff for the politicians targeted. As a manhunt was underway seeking the man responsible for the attacks, the mayor of the city, a committed Liberal, took to a public square to assuage the fears of the people, when a man popped out of the crowd and fired three times into the mayor's chest. Though the assassin was wrestled to the ground shortly thereafter, there was nothing that could be done for the mayor, who became the second mayor of the city to die due to political violence in a row.

The assassin was identified as a member of the SLP shortly after arrest, belonging to one of the more radically revolutionary sub-factions of the party. Though the SLP would send out a condemnation of violence, it was delayed and undermined by significant protests from the left-wing of the party, whose relations with the mainstream pro-democracy factions had reached a complete breaking point. While the effects of this fracture would not emerge until after Election Day, the immediate consequences in the polls were immense, with the SLP dropping to about 30%, and the Liberals leaping up to 40%. Furthermore, the Liberals and National Conservatives promised that following the election, should they coalition with each other as expected, significant new legislation would be passed to crack down on political terror and stamp out the terrorism from the left that had begun to emerge in recent years.

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In the end, the polls did not budge much further after that. The Liberals won a sizeable plurality, and after brief negotiations, the previous government was reforged, now 36 seats weaker. Though they still held a solid majority, the major concern was that the only real opposition to the centrist coalition was now the left: the Kingdom Party flopped hard, having bled support to the National Conservatives, and though the Agrarians had gained seats because of the election, they had lost a good portion of their more conservative voting base, and already was beginning to shift left with calls for land reform and greater economic protections for the rural poor. A small cabinet reshuffle did occur: the Economic Minister was replaced by a Liberal, reportedly due to a poor working relationship between him and the Prime Minister, and the Agrarians were dropped for a Conservative who had used to be an Agrarian.

For now, at least, the status quo could hold for five more years.



Election Results:

Coalition of National Progress:
Liberal Party - 41.32%, 212 seats (+10)
National Conservative Party - 19.63%, 101 seats (-46)

Left-Opposition:
Socialist Labor Party - 31.19%, 160 seats (+124)
Agrarian Party - 4.76%, 24 seats (+2)

Others:
Kingdom Party - 2.91%, 15 seats (-99)